Thursday, April 24, 2014

Post poll verdict: Congress in a tight corner

We agree with Yogi Berra that predictions are difficult...especially those about the future.

That said it was clear from yesterday that Muslims have been fully mobilized for the Congress. What was equally clear is that the Hindus have been fully mobilized for the BJP, in particular the Gujarati community in Mumbai (also includes a sizable number of Jains, Parsis and Dawoodi Bohras). To the extent the politicians wanted a polarized electorate they have got one (Aam Admi Party does not even have a whiff of a chance).  

The BJP/NDA will win this one and probably win big.

As a result of the mobilization efforts, polling was huge even in normally apathetic Mumbai. The top-line number is 52.66% (41.42% in 2009). These numbers are preliminary ones released by the Election Commission and may be revised later.

Breaking down into constituencies we have: Mumbai North 52% (42.6% in 2009), North-East 53% (42.47), North-West 50% (44), North-Central 52% (39.5), South-Central 55% (39.5), and South 54% (40.37).

In Maharashtra the top-line number is 56.26%. The non-metro seats also saw healthy voting percentage: Nandurbar (62), Dhule (59), Jalgaon (50), Raver (58), Jalna (63), Aurangabad (59), Dindori (64), Nashik (64), Palghar (58), Bhiwandi (60), Kalyan (43), Thane (42) and Raigad (64). Thane (also Kalyan) was disappointingly low (why? these are politically very active).

For rest of India, voting percentage increased on average by more than 10% (excluding states which already record high turnouts). Specifically, and most significantly, Uttar Pradesh registered a 13% increase.

West Bengal clocks in (as always) as the most politically conscious state. The turnouts were as follows: West Bengal (81.4), Puducherry (80), Tamil Nadu (73), Assam (77.6), Madhya Pradesh (66), Jharkhand (63.5), Chhattisgarh (66), Uttar Pradesh (60.12), Bihar (60), and Rajasthan (59).

This is how the other metros have voted so far. Delhi 65.1% (51.8% in 2009), Bangalore 54% (48.3), Chennai 60% (61).  Chennai was the only disappointment. First place for Kolkata (by a country mile) is assured.

The minimum was in Anantnag, Kashmir (28%) since our islamist brothers are not fond of democracy (here or elsewhere around the world). They still dream about repeating another direct action day experience when they can drive all the Hindus out of Kashmir...but they have already accomplished that. Next in order would be to battle test the formula (1 muslim soldier = 10 hindus). Unfortunately for them, even after four attempts, that claim remains to be validated. Now the only thing left on the agenda is to kill their own brothers (and sisters), ban expressions of art and culture, and force women into purdah. Good luck with that.
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