Sunday, March 9, 2014

Sensex @ 22k

New record.....the market is (maybe) signalling confidence about a stable govt post elections....also perhaps a return of investor confidence in India

Steady buying by foreign investors has led to a strong rally in Indian markets. Overseas investors have bought heavily into India as a sharply narrowing current account deficit and a more stable rupee have increased confidence in a country that only last year was in the midst of its biggest market turmoil since the balance of payments crisis of 1991.
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) bought Indian shares worth Rs. 1,273 crore on Thursday, extending their buying streak to a 15th consecutive day for a net of over $1 billion. (Read: FIIs mark their biggest daily purchase since December 19)

Market analyst Sanjeev Bhasin told NDTV that Friday could see more gains though the real bull market could be witnessed in broader indices, where stocks have given almost 50-100 per cent returns from recent 3-month lows.

"Foreign flows have turned positive amid an easing in inflation, better cash management by the government with current account deficit hitting an 8-year low and the rupee rising to a 3-month high. All this has meant that India has outperformed the emerging markets," he added.


This is an useful site for latest updates in election news...we now have poll tracker for individual states....IMO multi-corner contests will be highly tricky to predict (much more so than the USA)

current forecast for  
UP: BJP (41-49) out of (80), 36% of the vote
Bihar: BJP+LJP (22-30) out of (40), 38% of the vote

This is a good article (conclusions below) on electoral studies. In this respect it is imperative that Indians engage in better data gathering and analysis and building better tools (rather than trying to suppress information anytime the ruling party is in trouble...as it usually is).

In view of the quantity and quality of election studies in India, it may be said that relative to other developing countries, India is advancing. But compared to studies in developed countries, there is still much to be done. A systematic accumulation of data for individual voting behaviours seems to be necessary. The Lokniti programme of CSDS made a breakthrough in the study of electoral behaviour by inventing most effective methodology unlike other studies in the field. The publications in this direction provide enormous materials to carry out the different aspects of electoral behaviour. Most studies which examined the confidence of people in the election system or the efficacy as citizens showed that people had faith in the election system. Socio-economic status like gender, caste, religion, education, and income were important in explaining political awareness, exposure to political propaganda, sense of personal effectiveness in politics, and party preference. Caste, religion, and to a lesser degree, economic status, are especially important variables for explaining party preference. Opinion polls of large-scale samples conducted after the 1980’s are important indicators of overall popular issues and sentiments. The most important issues of the electorate are those related daily lives of people such as rising prices or unemployment. These are undercurrents affecting the party preference of people.

regards