Sunday, May 4, 2014

Verdict: BJP (229), +42 (revised estimate)

We have been consistent in our opinion that something really extra-ordinary has to happen to enable BJP to cross the 200 seat threshold. The experts group appointed by Outlook are a left-neutral bunch and they were in agreement on this point six months ago.  

A state by state analysis at that time came up with 187 seats. Now the experts have re-assembled and the revised seat count is up by (42) to 229.  

We happen to agree, this was a personal observation of the local electoral proceedings that the hindu vote has been effectively mobilized, at least in the North and West. In the South and the East the BJP may not get many seats but the voters are firmly in favor of Modi Raj. This will help remove the "untouchability" factor associated with the BJP (in reality  the threat of muslim votes evaporating).

What about the Congress? The battle plan called for a three-pronged (proxy) attack, hold the southern forts of Kerala, Karnataka and Telengana (also score a draw in Maharashtra), hope that the Aam aadmi party stops the BJP in Delhi and other urban centers, pray that the caste equations in Northern India enables Team B (Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party, Rashtriya Janata Dal) to stop the BJP in rural seats.


In our opinion Congress will do poorly in Maharashtra and only a draw in Karnataka and Telengana. That leaves the star performers as Kerala and Axom. It will perhaps win only a single seat in each of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Odisha. It will be completely wiped out in the north except for Punjab where it may put up a strong showing (still a draw). 

All of this adds up to less than 100...a complete disaster for Rahul Gandhi. The prince is unlikely to recover from this as he has lost touch with the people and they are unimpressed by him (they are a bit more well disposed towards his sister...but only if the honorable jamai babu is held under lock and key).
.........

North
J/K: Total (6) BJP 2004 (0), 2009 (0), 2014* (estimate, change after revision) (2, +2)
Punjab: (13) 2004 (3), 2009 (1), 2014* (7, -3)
Himachal Pradesh: (4) 2004 (1), 2009 (3), 2014* (2)
Uttarakhand: (5) 2004 (3), 2009 (0), 2014* (4, +1)
Haryana: (10) 2004 (1), 2009 (0), 2014*  (8, +5)
Delhi: (7) 2004 (1), 2009 (0), 2014* (2)
Uttar Pradesh: (80) 2004 (10), 2009 (10), 2014* (30, +10)

West
Rajasthan: (25) 2004 (21), 2009 (4), 2014* (16, +4)
Madhya Pradesh: (29) 2004 (25), 2009 (16), 2014* (26, +6)
Gujarat: (26) 2004 (14), 2009 (15), 2014* (19, +2)
Maharashtra: (48) 2004 (13), 2009 (9), 2014* (32, +7)

South
Karnataka: (28) 2004 (18), 2009 (19), 2014* (18)
United Andhra: (42) 2004 (0), 2009 (0), 2014* (10)

East
Odisha: (21) 2004 (7), 2009 (0), 2014* (4)
Bihar: (40) 2004 (5), 2009 (12), 2014* (14)
Jharkhand: (14) 2004 (1), 2009 (8), 2014* (7)
Chattisgarh: (11) 2004 (10), 2009 (10), 2014* (7)
Axom: (14) 2004 (2), 2009 (4), 2014* (4)

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 Link: http://www.outlookindia.com/article.aspx?290587
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regards