Tuesday, May 20, 2014

Modi Sarkar Predictions

I am no expert on Indian politics and am in no position to seriously make predictions based on detailed knowledge. So this is just about "general principles".

1. The latent potential for capitalist development in India must be HUGE. No matter how messy, how ugly and how corrupt it turns out to be (and it will probably be all three), if there is no war and no civil war and a "capitalism friendly" government, some people will make a LOT of money. And by some, I mean a lot of people (which still leaves many many more who wont make much). Neither war nor civil war seem very likely (though neither is ruled out), so this one is easy: there will be money. Lots of it. (and that is not always a good thing, but whatever...its coming). If you own a decrepit house in some big city in India and its not already worth a ridiculous amount, hold on to it and sell it for BIG bucks in a couple of years.

2. Having a man with real power and the willingness to use it in charge (instead of the lovely Dr Manmohan Singh, of whom I am a most devoted fan, but whose lack of power was rather obvious) will mean that dozens and dozens of projects and initiatives that are already set to go or inching along will accelerate dramatically. That means the sarkar will be able to show LOTS of fancy shmancy projects in relatively short time (and will probably forget to say "Thank you" to Dr sahib).

3. Relations with Pakistan will not be good. Not just because the Hindu Right has a really hard time with that one, but because poor Nawaz Sharif is being put in his place as we speak and may not be able to hold up his end of the table in spite of the best intentions.

4. Finally, this is India. This is the BJP. This is the RSS. Is it really likely that they are so incredibly disciplined and far-sighted and sagacious that they will not do anything self-destructive or stupid? Just on general principles, that seems unlikely. So the question, dear pundits, is this: what will be the first really bad decision that needlessly sets off a chain reaction of bat shit craziness from all sides? and who will be responsible for it? And will Modi be able to tamp it down (or will he actually be the one to start it!)?

Inquiring minds want to know...