Saturday, May 31, 2014

How India voted: National Election Study 2014

 Some conclusions culled from the survey:
  1. Modi's candidature helped NDA: 1 in every 4 respondents who voted for NDA said they would not have voted for the coalition had Modi not been the prime ministerial candidate
  2. It was the upper castes, OBCs, and the tribals-who together won the day for BJP
  3. Upper Caste consolidation in favor of BJP reached 1998 level, while Muslim vote share for Congress remained steady
  4. BJP recorded her largest ever Muslim voteshare but by and large, Congress and the rest retained their Muslim Voters

  5. Highest ever Young Voter Turnout: Compared to the national average of 66.6%, turnout among first-time voters (18-22 years) and ‘other young voters’ was 68 %. In past, the turnout among young voters has always been lower compared to the average national turnout. So this is a big deal. The increase in turnout among first-time voters was visible in both rural and urban constituencies and cut across gender. 
  6. In the BJP win states, Support for the party cuts across young and old: The biggest shift among first-time voters in favour of the BJP could be seen in Madhya Pradesh followed by Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand and Rajasthan. But, in other States where the party registered an impressive victory — Bihar, Gujarat, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh and Chhattisgarh — it received more support among voters of the age group 23-25 and among other middle-aged voters compared to first-time voters 
  7. A thin 'majority' mandate: Before 2014 elections, the lowest vote share of a “majority” party was 41 % . Compared to that, BJP’s share of 31 per cent is pretty low.