Monday, May 12, 2014

BJP: CVoter 289, ABP 281, CNN 276, Cicero 272

India made history in this elections: 551 mil Indians voted over a period of 5 weeks. Awesome!!The overall turnout in all the nine phases of polling this year stood at 66.38 per cent, posting the highest in the history of Lok Sabha elections, surpassing the previous best of 64.01 per cent in 1984 in the wake of the assassination of the then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi. The turnout in 2009 was 58.19 per cent.

It gets a bit complicated but 272 seats are required for a simple majority. If the smallest tally of 249 (Times) is taken as a floor, BJP/NDA will have no problems in forming a stable five-year govt.

Bottom-line, India is getting ready to welcome her first Shudra Czar (long overdue), we look forward to when the Dalit Queen will find her way to the throne (perhaps next elections)  

Shocking BJP wins predicted in Karnataka and Axom, states which were expected to hold the line for Congress. Massive BJP victory in Uttar Pradesh. UPA sweeps Kerala. AIADMK conquers Tamil Nadu. Mamata faces defeat in West Bengal, Mayawati loses big in Uttar Pradesh. Nitish Kumar wiped out in Bihar, Left routed in Kerala but scores surprisingly well in Bengal. Congress fares better than expected in Maharashtra, Punjab and in Haryana, decimated in Rajasthan and Gujarat.

It may be wise not to place too much faith in the exit polls (there were massive goof-ups in 2004 and in 2009- on both occasions pointing to a BJP victory). Having said that this exercise was a major victory for democracy and for the republic of India with the Election Commission achieving (almost) national treasure status. 

Since most of us here at BP take a jaundiced view of Hinduism/Hindutva (justifiably so given the excesses committed in its name), it is a fair point to add that nothing in the Buddhist (Thailand) and Islamic (Turkey, Indonesia) universe comes close to what Hindu-majority India has achieved in terms of vesting political power in her citizens. Even Christians in the third world (South Africa) cant really hope to compare. And the beauty of it is this has happened with the co-operation of citizens of all stripes: Jains, Buddhists, Muslims, Christians and Hindus have achieved it together with mostly good cheer and harmony. It is such a remarkable thing that it is not remarked upon most of the time (which is how it should be). 

Axom: BJP predicted to win (8) out of (14)

West Bengal: Trinamool (20), Left (15), Congress (5), BJP (2)

Bihar: BJP 28 out of 39
Alternate (ABP): BJP+LJP (21), RJD + Congress (14), JDU (2)
Alternate (CVoter): BJP (26)

Jharkhand: BJP (7), Congress (6), JBSP (1)

Chattisgarh: BJP (10), Congress (1)

Uttar Pradesh: BJP (52), BSP (6), SP (12), UPA (10)

Punjab: BJP (7), Congress (6)

Delhi: BJP (7) out of (7)

Himachal Pradesh: BJP (4) out of (4)

Haryana: BJP+ (3), Congress (7)
Rajasthan: BJP (22), Congress (2)

Gujarat: BJP (22), Congress (2) 

Madhya Pradesh: BJP (16), Congress (11), BSP (2)
CVoter: BJP (26), Congress (3) 

Maharashtra: BJP (27), Congress (21)

Telengana: TRS (8), TDP + BJP (2), Congress (4), Left (2)

Seemandhra: BJP + TDP (17), YSR (8)

Karnataka: BJP (18), Congress (9), JDS (1)

Tamil Nadu: AIADMK (31), DMK (7), Congress (1) 

Kerala: Congress + IUML (18), Left (2)