Wednesday, July 2, 2014

China....big inspiration for Big M?

This is actually the million dollar question (comment by Shah Alam). As an imagery of a dystopian future this may well catch on with the academic left - naga sadhus hand (force) feeding muslims during Ramzan. So, will He, or wont He? 

The easy (and lazy) answer is that India is not China (and hindu-muslim power equation is nothing like the han-muslim equation). However it may be worthwhile to explore this question in some detail.

(1) First and fore-most: What did the electorate have in mind when it handed a super-vote to the BJP? Was it for war on poverty or war on religion?

(2) How does the BJP behave when in power? We can learn from the precedence of the NDA government and there are multiple state govt ruled by the BJP (including post-2002 Gujarat).

(3) Finally, did Hindutva-vadis learn any lessons from Gujarat 2002? What are their priorities??

It is hard to decipher how the Brahmins of Nagpur are thinking (they do not go much for public discussions). But if they are really the long-war thinking types (and RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat is an unusually astute politician) then the first order of business is to arrange for a realignment of Indian politics. And that can happen only by finishing off the Congress for good.

The way things are right now, this should not be hard to achieve. All dynasties disappear beyond a point- that has been the perennial Indian story. But indications are that with Rahul being decisively rejected by the masses, Sonia is planning for a comeback. She is also extremely astute. A single mis-step and she will destroy the saffrons for another decade.

So the most probable answers are: (1) the electorate will be very impatient with poor economic performance and already many external factors are darkening the horizon (rise in oil price due to civil war in Iraq), 
(2) BJP while in power has generally had a more moderate record than the so-called secular parties, plus Modi has made a show of co-operation- inviting all SAARC nations to his inauguration, there are also plans for a SAARC satellite, 
(3) Hindutva-vadis will likely be impatient for the ram temple but they may be willing to give the BJP a long rope, in the long run their turn will come (they think).

This is not saying that there will be no discrimination. Muslims are likely to be neglected at the expense of other backward castes (shudras). The building of a permanent OBC vote-bank will be key for transforming BJP into the natural ruling party of India.

Game-changer: If there is a repeat Mumbai like attack, then India and Pakistan will go to war. That will be a nightmare because most of us in India will not survive to tell any tales.