Thursday, April 3, 2014

Saffron surge in Battleground States

Still no clarity on the magic number- 220 which will be required to convince new partners (my state is my kingdom) to join up. For now the likely list will include TDP (Andhra), AIADMK (Tamil Nadu) and BJD (Odisha). And that's it. BJP is radio-active for the two Mullahs (Mulayam and Mamata) who have strong muslim backing. Mayawati may be persuaded to join but she will demand dismissal of Samajwadi Party from Lucknow (Uttar Pradesh) in return.

It appears that Mission 115 looks to be a goal too far for the Congress (the south, in particular, Kerala, Karnataka and Telengana will be crucial). Also the AAP may not be making a large enough impact in this elections but hopefully will take over from Congress as a secular alternative. For that the AAP has to find a way to steal (and retain) Dalits and Muslim votes, which have always  been donated free to Congress.

The Congress and UPA are facing decimation in a wide swathe of states from Delhi and Rajasthan in the north to Bihar and Jharkhand in the east, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh in the centre, Maharashtra in the west and Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka in the south. In sharp contrast, the BJP and its allies are riding high in almost all these states, with Tamil Nadu being an exceptional case of neither major alliance doing well, according to an opinion poll done for a TV channel.

The poll done by Hansa Research for NDTV and released on Thursday estimated that the BJP would win 21 of 25 seats in Rajasthan, 25 of 29 seats in MP, eight of 11 seats in Chhattisgarh, 10 of 14 seats in Jharkhand, 16 of 28 seats in Karnataka and four of seven in Delhi. Thus, in these six states combined, the party would bag 84 out of 114 seats on its own. The BJP with its allies would win 21 of Bihar's 40 seats, 36 of Maharashtra's 48, 16 of AP's 42 and three of Tamil Nadu's 39, leading to a total of 76 out of 169 seats in these four states.

As against this, the poll predicts that the Congress will win just 29 seats in AP, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Delhi put together, while the party and its allies will win 25 seats in Bihar, Jharkhand and Maharashtra. In short, the overall tally in all of these states put together would be 160 for the NDA and a mere 54 for the UPA.
 In Tamil Nadu, the poll predicts that the AIADMK will win 25 seats, the DMK alliance 11 seats and the BJP alliance three seats, leaving the Congress facing a blank slate. In Andhra Pradesh, there would be two distinctly different battles - mainly between the TDP-BJP and the YSR Congress in Seemandhra and between the Congress and TRS in Telengana. Put together, the TDP alliance is estimated to win 16 seats, the YSR Congress 10, the Congress eight and TRS seven.

In Maharashtra, the NDA will win 36 seats and the UPA just 10, the poll predicted. In Bihar, the NDA gets 21, the UPA 11 and the ruling JD(U) a mere six. In Delhi, AAP will win two seats and Congress one, the remaining four going to BJP, the poll predicted.
 
 

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regards