Kashmir: End of Militancy but not of Militarisation

A decade back, More people were dying every month in militancy-countermilitancy associated violence in J&K than there are now in entire year! Total casualties have fallen to the level when militancy began (1988-89) and  unlike the bad old days, most casualties nowadays are of the militants (and not civilians).

'	Incidents	Civilians	Security Force Personnel	Terrorists	Total
1988	390	29	1	1	31
1989	2154	79	13	0	92
1990	3905	862	132	183	1177
1991	3122	594	185	614	1393
1992	4971	859	177	873	1909
1993	4457	1023	216	1328	2567
1994	4484	1012	236	1651	2899
1995	4479	1161	297	1338	2796
1996	4224	1333	376	1194	2903
1997	3004	840	355	1177	2372
1998	2993	877	339	1045	2261
1999	2938	799	555	1184	2538
2000	2835	842	638	1808	3288
2001	3278	1067	590	2850	4507
2002	NA	839	469	1714	3022
2003	NA	658	338	1546	2542
2004	NA	534	325	951	1810
2005	NA	521	218	1000	1739
2006	NA	349	168	599	1116
2007	NA	164	121	492	777
2008	NA	69	90	382	541
2009	NA	55	78	242	375
2010	NA	36	69	270	375
2011	NA	34	30	119	183
2012	NA	16	17	84	117
2013	NA	20	61	100	181
2014	NA	10	16	42	68
Total*	47234	14682	6110	22787	43579

*Data till June 22, 2014 (Source: South Asia Terrorism Portal) 

In an ideal scenario, end of militant violence ought to be followed by demilitarisation and a political settlement with the weakened militant elements. The script has been played out in Bodoland, Nagaland and Mizoram with decent results (though inter-ethnic/tribal violence is yet end in Nagaland and Bodoland). There has indeed been less visible military presence in Valley's cities. But, right now, prospects of complete demilitarisation or any significant 'drawdown' from Valley's internal cities seem dim for several reasons:

1. Elections and a cautious Indian State: Kashmir Valley recorded the lowest regional turnout in Indian Parliamentary elections. Barring Kupwara district and a few Shia/Gujjar dominated pockets; Separatists largely succeeded in ensuring a boycott in Valley- at places (Srinagar's Bemian, Sopore) through genuine sympathy for Hurriyat's call; and at other places (rural South Kashmir) through assassination of Panches & creating a fear-psychosis. This has been a slap on the face for Indian State. Now, the State assembly elections are due later this year. Usually, State and Panchayat (unlike National) elections, record decent turnout in Valley. Given the ignominy faced in Parliamentary polls, Indian state would not like to do anything radical, that holds the potential to spoil the state elections (and discredit itself further).
2. BJP in Centre: With BJP in Power, even Article 370, is no longer a holy cow.  Defence Minister Jaitley has already made trips to Srinagar, mainly to assess the Security preparedness against Terrorist threats. Modi will do the same in early July.  
3. Kashmiri Pandit Repatriation: There have been some overtures by Central and State Government, for resettling Kashmiri Pandits in Valley. Whether these overtures materialise or not, talk for the same means there will have to be Central security forces in valley to reassure Pandit community.
4. Af-Pak muddle next door and ISIL, Al-Shabab, Boko-Haram adventures in far off lands: Requires no further elaboration.

There is little doubt that in past, Central Governments in Delhi have acted in a autocratic manner (spark for insurgency itself was started by a rigged state assembly election in 1987) and there exists a really huge and horrible laundry list of rights violation by the security forces stationed there with virtually no convictions. At times, Kashmiri students have also been attacked by their hypernationalist college mates in North India.

Having said that, It has to be recognised that (unlike her esteemed neighbors) as of today; Kashmir is free of polio, and (unlike Syrians, Afghans, Sri Lanka's Tamilians and Pakistan's Ahmedis/Shias) Kashmiris are not jumping onto overcrowded boats in Indian ocean or crossing over to neighboring countries for political or religious asylum (infact many who did cross LoC, at peak of militancy, now wish to return home). Nor do Kashmiris go around blowing themselves in mainland Indian cities. Also despite out-migration of Valley's Pandits and multiple attacks by separatist militants in Jammu's temples and pilgrims in past, by and large, Jammu region's communal harmony has been retained (leaving aside 1947 killings). Things could have been a lot  worse. Credit (be it to the local culture or the Security forces) must be given, where it is due.

Or is it a case of Confirmation Bias? I am no longer in immediate demilitarisation camp

A year back, I would have backed complete demilitarisation of Valley and handing law and order entirely to Local Police. But events in Iraq, Nigeria and Pakistan have turned me into an agnostic inclined towards holding one's ground. Given the existing popular disenchantment amongst the Sunni Kashmiri majority and presence of significant Islamist firepower in region; there is a very realistic chance of many a cities falling into the hands of Islamist militants as soon as Central military/para-military forces withdraws- assuming here that J&K State police is no better than State Police elsewhere in India and like Iraq- if push comes to the shove, Police may very well switch sides or simply run away. 

This, in my view, will not be followed by any dawn of Azadi. Instead like Waziristan, Northern Sri Lanka, and now Tikrit; Fighter Jets and heavy artillery may end up bombing the entire place to retake cities, causing major civilian casualties and mass migrations. Kashmiri separatists, even with Pakistani assistance, are too small a lot to defeat India by force. How all of this will impact with Jammu's (if not rest of India's) multireligious settlements is anybody's guess. What looks certain is that, end result could very well be far far worse than the present ground situation and would take decades to heal. For long-lasting peace and prosperity in Kashmir Valley, A popular political reconciliation/settlement in a hate free environment has to be the goal; but at the moment, priority, has to be not allowing Kashmir to descend into a Syria/Afghan level hellhole.