Iraq, an old post

From Dr Hamid Hussein. And old post that is still relevant

Things in the middle east are going from bad to worse....

btw, ISIS has officially stoned a woman to death in Syria. I am surprised it took them so long. Some things have an iconic status in Jihadi circles: cutting off the hands of a thief (check, ISIS has done that, in public), whipping someone for drinking alcohol (so mundane that its probably been done but not reported) and stoning a woman to death. Nothing puts the fear of God into people like watching a woman (in a shroud) being stoned to death by a mob of baying humans. 

Omar 

July 16, 2014

Dear All;

I don’t know why but many interested in the subject asked about changing dynamics of Iraq conflict in view of recent advances of ISIS, Shia militia response and maneuvers of Kurds.  Utter barbarity and carnage and that also in the most holy Islamic month of Ramadan with indiscriminate killing, mass executions (ISIS executed close to 200 Shia air force recruits and soldiers and Shia militiamen responded by executing almost 200 Sunni prisoners) and demolishing of mosques and mausoleums by ISIS is tragic but general apathy among Muslims is truly mind boggling.  Overwhelming majority is totally oblivious to the cancer eating away the body politic of Muslims. 

Frankly, I have nothing more to add but refer them to an old piece written in 2006 before the surge.  The question asked at that time was Sunni-Shia violence in Iraq and Kurdish context as well as impact of U.S. troops on the equation.  I was personally against the surge of American troops and thought that it may give a tactical respite but not change the long term instability emanating from Iraq.  I was proven wrong and surge achieved a major success although jury is still out about what was the major contributing factor.  There is still debate in U.S. military community about this.  U.S. mistakes were compounded by failure of Iraqi government to adjust the course regarding Sunnis and crisis in Syria ultimately unraveled the whole thing.  Now a long and very painful road will be travelled by all Iraqis and I fear more china will break in the process. We have seen this horror show before in 2006-07 and it is not for the faint hearted.

Hamid

Archie the anarchist

"Archie: The Married Life Book Three" was taken off book shop shelves following a complaint to Singapore's Media Development Authority which found it was not in line with social norms .....

OK Singapore is a weird place, it allows (we hope) internet porn while blocking Playboy (the interviews, people are missing out on the interviews!!!!)

But why ban Archie? Because..... presumably, just like Iran, Singapore does not have any gays. Not only that, just hearing about gays will pollute the minds of youngsters and they will turn int gays. What a nightmare.

When people talk about the positive influence of religion (which we do not deny) they should also acknowledge the immense harm that it does on both believers and non-believers alike.
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Singapore has banned a volume of the "Archie" comic book that featured a same-sex marriage, adding fuel to a censorship row that erupted over a children's story about two male penguins hatching an egg.

Arundhati Roy = Nathuram Godse

....“The book is extremely important for Dalits and it not right to add footnotes to the book. We feel Arundhati Roy has diluted Ambedkar’s writing and there is every chance that the book might be misinterpreted......Roy has always been a Maoist sympathiser and has never been vocal on Dalit atrocities. So with that understanding, how can she write a foreword for the book?” ....

Roy and Godse are dwellers of distant planets so one has to be careful while drawing equations. She is THE leading global thinker while he was just a deluded terrorist. But it should be highlighted that Roy is a fan of Comrade Charu Majumdar (see below), a terrorist of equal or much higher caliber than Godse.

What unites Roy, Godse and Majumdar is deep-seated Gandhi-hatred, and to mock non-violence as a way to solve (big) societal problems. Perhaps it is because deep down we are all defined by our caste. Roy, Godse and Majumdar are all Brahmins who despise the upstart Vaishya/Baniya (Gandhi).
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....After acknowledging that Mazumdar's “abrasive rhetoric fetishses violence, blood and martyrdom, and often employs a language so coarse as to be almost genocidal”, Roy finds that despite all this blood lust Charu “was a visionary in much of what he wrote and said. The party he founded (and its many splinter groups) has kept the dream of revolution real and present in India. Imagine a society without that dream. For that alone we cannot judge him too harshly. Especially not while we swaddle ourselves with Gandhi's pious humbug about the superiority of ‘the non-violent way' ...
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As far as blood lust is concerned, while Majumdar argued in favor of "making shoes for the poor with the skin of rick people" (Bengali- dhonir chamray goriber juto), Godse wanted a Muslim mukt Bharat (muslim free India).

Now Roy has made many Dalit activists extremely unhappy (see below). They want her to shut up about Gandhi and also shut up about Ambedkar. This is primarily because Roy (as dalit activists see her) is a forward caste celebrity trying to cash in on Ambedkar. They are not interested in her certificates because of her lack of a (caste) certificate. Throwing stones at Gandhi is not going to change that equation.

We learn that the book launch (for The Annihilation of Caste in Hyderabad by AR) was cancelled because of opposition from Dalits? We would expect S Anand (publisher) to scream out when there is attack on free speech on HIS own book. Before he and other left-liberals shout wolf again they will need to tell us why one form of censorship is bad, while others are benign.
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No escape from Buk-M (range: 82,000 ft)

.....BUK systems "are in just about every country that bought anti-aircraft weapons from Russia”.....after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia sold these weapons systems “to anybody who wanted them” .... missiles on the BUKs...range 82,000 feet.....

Unless you have a rocket that takes you to outer space and back you will face trouble evading a Buk missile.....

Red Zones:
Dnepropetrovsk—Planes Not Allowed to Fly at any Altitude
Iraq—Planes Not Allowed to Fly Below 20,000 feet with Exception of Immediate Arrivals and Departures from Erbil International Airport
North Korea—Planes Not Allowed to Fly at any Altitude

Northern Ethiopia—Planes Not Allowed to Fly at any Altitude
Libya—Planes Not Allowed to Fly at any Altitude
Simferopol—Planes Not Allowed to Fly at any Altitude

Yellow Zones:
Afghanistan—Operators Warned Against Attack From Small-Arms Fire and Man-Portable Air Defense Systems (MANPADs)
Democratic Republic of the Congo—Operators Warned Against Flying Below 15,000 Feet
Iran: Operators Warned That Iran and the United States do not Maintain Consular Relations
Mali—Operators Warned Against Flying at or Below 24,000 Feet
Kenya—Operators Warned Against Attack from Man-Portable Air Defense Systems (MANPADs)
Sinai—Operators Warned Against Flying at or Below 24,000 Feet.
Syria—Operators Warned Against Flying at any Altitude
Yemen—Operators Warned Against Flying at or Below 24,000 Feet
....

After 9/11 travel became a pain in the neck. We had to discard nail clippers, we drank baby formula milk (yes, really). Then there are people who cannot fly because their name is on a list.

Now with proliferated missiles reaching a range of 82,000 ft, you will always worry about terrorists scattered around the globe who may attack you at any moment. Yet, people will continue to fly (and die).
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Anthropogenic heat-wave in Kashmir (451F)

The Amarnath Yatra was suspended....50 people were injured in police action….110 tents and community kitchens were gutted in fire and 70 LPG cylinders exploded....police fired teargas shells and lathi-charged locals...  
....

Every year it is the same stupid movie, thousands of devotees marching up to Amarnath through hostile territory (you hate us and we hate you back) and all it takes is a small spark to morph into a giant fireball.

Kashmir differs from Gaza strip in that the local administration (and even militants) is made more pliant by Indian bribes. Also Indian tolerance for dead troops is probably higher than that of Israel. This is as opposed to the Uighurs who are being subjected to ethnic swamping and cultural genocide.  

It may be short-sighted (and wishful thinking) on our behalf but Kashmir at this point looks more stable than Xinjiang. If any future peace treaty leads to withdrawal of army then that may be the best possible compromise to be had amongst the main stake-holders (except the Pandits who will never see their native land again).

At the end of the day cold war is just as bad as hot war. India of all countries should have the courage to solve difficult problems through non-violence. In the worst case scenario it has to learn how to let go with grace. India should build a strong, high wall along the Chenab river and look East to South-East Asia. 

The advantage of this strategy will be that North-East will finally see the development it deserves. There are many many valleys in Arunachal Pradesh, just as beautiful as Kashmir and much more serene.
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The Amarnath Yatra was suspended on Friday after at least 50 people were injured in police action and clashes between two groups following alleged stabbing of a Kashmiri businessman near Baltal base camp.     

The Bangladesh Paradox

The belief that growth brings development....criticized on the basis that some countries have had good growth but little poverty reduction. Bangladesh....had disproportionate poverty reduction for its amount of growth.

The data is well known but the mysteries remain. A comprehensive look-in by master-class blogger and economist Jyoti Rahman. JR asks some important questions and sets up an impressive research agenda that is sure to benefit the laggards in South Asia - India (minus south), Pakistan, and Nepal.

JR has a story which sounds plausible but needs more data/analysis: Well, how about a stylised, and very speculative, story along this line — while RMG has meant women entering the formal workforce, migrant worker boom has sent a lot of risk-taking men overseas; aided by the NGOs and microcredit, households have smoothed consumption and invested in human capital of their children; but they have not invested in physical capital, avoided entrepreneurial activities, and have not pushed for a more investment-friendly polity.
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The Bangladesh Paradox:

The belief that growth brings development with it—the “Washington consensus”—is often criticized on the basis that some countries have had good growth but little poverty reduction. Bangladesh embodies the inverse of that: it has had disproportionate poverty reduction for its amount of growth.

Please protect pink people (pronto)!!!

We were not overtly fond of the past Congress-UPA regime but there was one bright spot. The govt had taken the courageous stand of supporting gay rights and against the Supreme Court order criminalizing gay lifestyle (and canceling out the progressive decision by the Delhi High Court). Since BJP was in the opposition it had the luxury of side-stepping a bed of thorns (on a point which would affect religious conservatives).

Now that BJP-NDA is in power and they have absolute majority the time for prevarications are over. There is no opportunity to hide behind coalition partners (as the Congress often did, especially with the Women in Parliament Reservations Bill). We understand that people  who have voted in favor of BJP (not including ourselves) were in part motivated by the fact that it will take bold decisions for the long-term benefit of society (even if they prove to be unpopular in the short run).

The good news is that the Health Minister Shri Harsh Vardhan (who is an actual medical doctor) has announced that the human rights of gays must be protected. Now his party needs to translate his words into action and pass a gay rights bill in the parliament.
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Health Minister Harsh Vardhan today batted for "human rights" of gays and said it was the government's job to protect their rights. "Everybody, including gays, has human rights. It is the job of the government to protect their rights," he said on the sidelines of an event.
 

"Mosul is now empty of Christians"

.....Christians still in the city convert, pay a special tax or leave....."nothing for them but the sword" if Christians did not abide by those conditions before 0900 GMT....."Christian families are on their way to Dohuk and Arbil" in Kurdistan..... "For the first time in the history of Iraq, Mosul is now empty of Christians." 

....
Mosul, Iraq. Officially certified to be Christian free as of today.

Incidentally, the same thing happened two decades ago in Kashmir. The message blaring from the mosques was stark: all minorities leave NOW (leave your women behind).
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Thousands of Christians abandoned their homes and belongings to flee the Iraqi city of Mosul on Friday following an ultimatum by jihadists who overran the region last month and proclaimed a caliphate.

Viper-puppets and clown-idiots

In the past week we have heard a lot about how Ved Pratap Vaidik has committed treason by meeting with Hafeez Saeed. The meme has also spread that there is a back channel between the right-wings in India and Pakistan.

We are not sure what to believe at this point. A Nixon going to China moment was always a possibility. But a few things are fairly clear. Vaidik went with a delegation that included Mani Shankar (Modi can serve us tea in Congress sessions) Iyer who has many fans in the Pak establishment. So while not a "Aman ki Asha" brand they certainly came in peace.

Vaidik would not have been able to meet with Saeed unless there was clearance from the Deep State (did anybody worry at all that VPV would detonate a bomb and eliminate HS - thus collecting $10 mil posthumously - now that would be a sensational story).

Some deep-state czar may have wanted to get an inner view of Modi Sarkar and thought that VPV can be helpful. This is speculation, yet the most likely explanation.

At the end of the day Indian media and pols are revealed to be a bunch of self-serving clowns (yes we already knew). OTOH while Saeed as a viper is not to be underestimated, he is mostly a deep state puppet. He should have at least had the courtesy of supplying a few golden nuggets like how India would be shortly re-captured by the descendants of Md. Ghori and Babur. That would have certainly made  the Indian media explode in excitement.

As far as Vaidik is concerned, he seems to be an amiable idiot who can only find time to gossip about private morality (the life of the wives etc) while glossing over the public vices. While 26/11 is a watershed event and the war-criminals must be held to account, it is also the case that thousands have died before and after because of the vipers amidst us and no lessons have been learned. It was time that this is exposed, but that would require journalists with integrity, courage and vision, who are not necessarily after fame and fortune. That would be more difficult than finding a better fast bowler than Bhuvaneshwar Prasad (go Bhuvi!!!).
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Within a span of four days our hyper TV news channels and politicians gifted Ved Pratap Vaidik something that has eluded him for four decades: his 15 minutes of national fame.  

Is this the end of the 2-state solution

It seems that two hostile neighbouring states can't be partitioned into new ones anymore.

In light of the world having gotten far more interesting, we may have reach the apex of the nation state.

I finished (for the book club) the book Diamond Age (by Seattle author Neal Stephenson) and it seems we are hurtling towards a world where national & state boundaries are going to get subordinated. Just as it's de rigeur now for Elitestanis to have second passports so in the same way middle classes are coming under significant strain in the West.

Paradoxically after the Malaysian crash I am beginning to think the third world can be a better safe haven than the first world. London, Moscow and NY may be prime targets but who'd want to do anything in the DRC?